Damping the Spread of COVID-19

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/ I found a website named "Epidemic Calculator". You may be able to use it to fit the data of your country and predict the trend! This calculator uses a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed). In addition to the transmission dynamics, this model allows the use of supplemental timing information to model the death rate and healthcare burden. Below is an example. Looks like which country? Italy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzW9UUmImVA R0 (basic reproduction number) of COVID-19 is estimated to be 2.7-4.2, meaning each case will spread to an average of 2.7 to 4.2 others. For comparison, R0 for Seasonal Flu: 0.9-2.1, H1N1 (Swine Flu):1.4-1.6, Ebola: 1.5-2.5, SARS: 2-4, Smallpox: 6.9, Measles: 12-18.   . 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/368/6493/860.full.pdf This research projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of COVID-19 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave.  One scenario is that a resurgence could occur as far into the future as 2025.