Damping the Spread of COVID-19

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus Looking at the data of a few countries with bad situation before, such as China, South Korea, Italy, Gemany, France, UK, I see the hope for coutries that are still in worrying situation.

https://www.lesmills.com/fit-planet/health/covid-anxiety/  

https://medicine.nus.edu.sg/learning-from-covid-19-to-build-a-resilient-future/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1349&v=FAUM74AbNZc&feature=emb_logo A few points from Prof Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet: The world has been plunged into a state of political instability which is difficult to navigate. The xenophobia towards China, zero leadership from the United States and a collapse in public trust in many governments, have had a huge role to play in the mismanagement of this pandemic. He commended the quick response from China, which did everything in her power to send warning signals.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus This is a great site on COVID-19 data!

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/ I found a website named "Epidemic Calculator". You may be able to use it to fit the data of your country and predict the trend! This calculator uses a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed). In addition to the transmission dynamics, this model allows the use of supplemental timing information to model the death rate and healthcare burden. Below is an example. Looks like which country? Italy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzW9UUmImVA R0 (basic reproduction number) of COVID-19 is estimated to be 2.7-4.2, meaning each case will spread to an average of 2.7 to 4.2 others. For comparison, R0 for Seasonal Flu: 0.9-2.1, H1N1 (Swine Flu):1.4-1.6, Ebola: 1.5-2.5, SARS: 2-4, Smallpox: 6.9, Measles: 12-18.   . 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ro0dMV5QsY Back in early Feburary, when Singapore raised DORSCON (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) level from Yellow to Orange, I was hoping COVID-19 will disappear in two quarters, similar as SARS in 2003. I was totally wrong. Two years seems to be more realistic. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxMTnKZyLr0 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/malaysia As of today, Malaysia has total cases 8,904, with very low number of new cases in the past 50 days. It has not been easy to reach here: Malaysia used to be in the worst situaiton among all southeast Asia coutnries back in March, and they have a population of 32 million. This is a great example to show that "it's never too late to mend". 亡羊补牢，犹未为晚。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RjDqEauJMU https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/ Vietnam succeeded in containing COVID-19: as of today, total 420 cases, 0 death, with almost 100 million population!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReI6ROZNbkk https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/ I checked today's COVID-19 data of Taiwan: total cases 458, death number 7, with whole population of 24 million. This was a remarkable success for Taiwan government and people! It has been credited with taking early action to prevent the spread of the coronavirus as it emerged and for avoiding the lockdown measures many other countries implemented. Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan’s Vice President, received a Doctor of Science degree in epidemiology and human genetics from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in 1982. This webcast showed that not only Dr. Chen Chien-jen, but also the Taiwan government, that are professional and efficient when coping with COVID-19. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/ Singapore started gradual reopening on June 19. There seems to be a rising trend recently, with single day data on 7/25 as high as 513. We need to continue the habit of safe distancing, wash hands, wear mask, keep contact tracing and testing, to keep situation under control.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgmdwZnNF0Q https://covid19japan.com/ Japan has gone its own way on the coronavirus pandemic from its beginning, with a delayed response, limited testing and a gentler lockdown. Japan was lucky that people have habit of wearing mask before COVID-19. The rigorous contact tracing also helped. Recently, there was rising number of new cases, but considering their big population, situation seems to be under control. It is not a disaster, but also not a success that other countries should learn from. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHV4ukogdE0 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea This video uploaded in March, explaining experience from South Korea, who flattened their curve very quickly after the initial spike of COVID-19. They took preventative actions, including Social distancing, Contact tracing, Widespread testing, and Early preparation. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvXhcWXfOyg https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china I found a video uploaded in March, that explain China experience in coping with COVID-19.   Lockdown in 3 days.  Emergency hospital in ten days.  Self-quarantine for 14 days.   Control of daily activities.  Working from home.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/contact-tracing https://www.tracetogether.gov.sg/ Contact tracing is a critically important tool in pandemic response. Public health officials have long used this tactic to break the chain of transmission of infectious diseases and limit the spread of infections. Government need to find a balance between respecting civil liberties and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. In Singapore, MOH encourage people to use TraceTogether, which has over  2 million users, to "care for ourselves, care for our loved ones, and care for our community".

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30157-2/fulltext To improve on contact tracing effectiveness: reducing the testing delay is the most important factor; reducing the tracing delay might further enhance the effectiveness. The effectiveness of mobile app-based contact tracing declines with lower app use coverage, but it remains more effective than conventional contact tracing even with lower coverage, due to its inherent speed. 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases Flattening the curve involves reducing the number of new COVID-19 cases from one day to the next. This helps prevent healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed. The charts below show the daily number of new cases for the 5 most affected countries as of July 25, 2020. Please click the link to get more updated plots. Clearly, the curve is flattened for Russian, stablizing for Brazil and South Affrica, but still far for US and India.  

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200716101536.htm https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z The T cells, along with antibodies, are an integral part of the human immune response against viral infections due to their ability to directly target and kill infected cells.  The study by scientists from Duke-NUS Medical School, in close collaboration with NUS, SGH and NCID was published in  Nature . The findings suggest infection and exposure to coronaviruses induces long-lasting memory T cells, which could help in the management of the current pandemic and in vaccine development against COVID-19.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public  

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/organizations/business-employers/bars-restaurants.html   The more an individual interacts with others, and the longer that interaction, the higher the risk of COVID-19 spread.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/managing-stress-anxiety.html   Coping with stress in a healthy way will make you, the people you care about, and your community stronger.  Take care of your mental health.  

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/bill-gates-says-pandemic-get-worse-expected-calls-leadership/ “We need leadership in terms of admitting that we’ve still got a huge problem here, and not turning that into almost a political thing, … We need a leader who keeps us up to date, is realistic, and shows us the right behavior as well as driving the innovation track.”

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker Experts estimate that a fast-tracked vaccine development process could speed a successful candidate to market in approximately 12-18 months. The pandemic has created unprecedented public/private partnerships. The US government is choosing three vaccine candidates to fund for Phase 3 trials under Operation Warp Speed: Moderna’s mRNA-1273 in July, The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 in August, and Pfizer and BioNTech's BNT162 in September. 

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/368/6493/860.full.pdf This research projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of COVID-19 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave.  One scenario is that a resurgence could occur as far into the future as 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxVxc6ccqtQ The Ohio Department of Health tweeted a video illustrating the impact of social distancing using ping pong balls and mouse traps.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters People should NOT wear masks when exercising, as masks may reduce the ability to breathe comfortably. The important preventive measure during exercise is to maintain physical distance of at least one meter from others.

https://covid19.who.int/ The rapid spread and its wide-ranging consequences have resulted in lives lost, socio-economic disruption (at great cost) and diplomatic tensions. It has also highlighted gaps in countries’ abilities to manage large-scale emergencies. 

When and How to Wash Your Hands https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/when-how-handwashing.html Wash hands  a ft er you have been in a public place;  Wash hands before touching your eyes, nose, or mouth; Wash hands with soap, and s crub  your hands for 20 seconds.

Social Distancing:  Keep a Safe Distance to Slow the Spread. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html Limiting close face-to-face contact with others is the best way to reduce the spread of COVID-19.

Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent Both the  CDC and the WHO now recommend cloth masks for the general public. Masks can help prevent the spread of COVID-19.  It protect both people wearing them and people around them. Surgical masks are good.